INGOpening range breakout is one of the most important indicators of daily market direction that a trader can utilize.
司空金融網(wǎng)()2 p7 ?. G2 _. C% O( x9 }司空金融網(wǎng)() [) s6 C& @; ]+ F4 g0 [+ _4 V
開盤區(qū)間突破是一個可以用來判斷每天市場方向的重要工具。司空金融網(wǎng)()4 K4 q1 K/ z$ T) M; b( k
司空金融網(wǎng)()' I- ~ F% F' @$ b) H
An opening range breakout (ORB) is a trade taken at a predetermined amount above or below the司空金融網(wǎng)()0 E% y& w% o" V7 }8 D' G3 S' T
opening range. When the predetermined amount (the "stretch") is
computed, a buy stop is placed that amount above the high of the opening
range and a sell stop is placed the same amount below the low of the
opening range. The first stop that is traded is the position and the
other stop is a protective stop.司空金融網(wǎng)()2 u7 T/ H% v4 r7 C3 a& G0 M+ z
司空金融網(wǎng)()) Y$ J) ~7 x- g1 l( f開盤區(qū)間突破（記做ORB）是通過在開盤區(qū)間的上下加減預定的數(shù)值范圍進行交易。當預定的數(shù)值范圍被確定，這個買點就被放置在開盤區(qū)間的最高處或放在最低處的同等數(shù)值。一個作為進場點，另一個作為止損點。司空金融網(wǎng)(). y( V" V2 Y6 Q1 l$ [: j
司空金融網(wǎng)(). C* v& a; ~. S, \1 {% VThe
stretch is determined by looking at the previous 10 days and averaging
the differences between the open for each day and the closest extreme to
the open on each day.
司空金融網(wǎng)()# H3 N# e5 u* X司空金融網(wǎng)()+ `7 W+ o8 ^) y' ~7 [/ K2 M
這一數(shù)值是通過查看前面10天日內(nèi)最高價或者最低價與開盤價價差的平均值而等到的。
司空金融網(wǎng)()/ |8 w3 w, C) D2 e8 e1 e
司空金融網(wǎng)()& J5 k& E1 l. o6 C# Q/ EIn
a market with a strong bias in one direction or just after a clear
supply or demand indication, a trade in only one direction is taken.
This is called an Opening Range Breakout Preference (ORBP). The only
order entered is the stop in the direction of the entry. The protective
stop is entered only after the trade has been entered.司空金融網(wǎng)()1 I: [# v2 w- H9 S* L4 U) l
司空金融網(wǎng)()8 A& u1 {, f% o0 q當市場有強烈的方向，且方向明確后，供求關系已經(jīng)明顯，那么順著這個方向交易是唯一的選擇。這叫做開盤區(qū)間突破偏好現(xiàn)象（記做ORBP。此時，唯一需要做的就是順勢進場，而進場后要設立止損點。司空金融網(wǎng)()" x1 ~/ U: I" ?( @, V' o, d
司空金融網(wǎng)()& R1 }6 \. L) U4 e) I4 S3 x( B* s
If the market trades to the stretch in the opposite direction first, the
preference is nullified and the resting order is cancelled. This
requires you to monitor the market during the session. Intraday market
monitoring is not a sacrifice by any means and enhances the system.司空金融網(wǎng)()0 g. g6 g/ d8 M6 N' `* ]/ f7 _
司空金融網(wǎng)()2 ?& s6 S- S! g. i3 l. x7 S
如果市場沿著市場反方向運行，那么這個ORBP是無效的，最好休息停止這次交易。這就要求在盤中監(jiān)控市場的動向了。仔細看盤可不是種浪費，它是能提高交易系統(tǒng)效率的好辦法。
司空金融網(wǎng)()6 x& F, R" ~7 s3 [1 j( m司空金融網(wǎng)()2 W3 B1 o# V5 l9 ~, H" `) v; Y
Opening range breakout is effective after an inside day that has a
smaller daily range than the previous four days (IDnr4 in Figure 1 ) and
after any day that has a daily range less than the previous six days
(NR7) whether an inside day or not.司空金融網(wǎng)(); L( b* A7 Q/ c
司空金融網(wǎng)()! |# @6 [/ L7 LORB這一現(xiàn)象發(fā)生在IDnr4或者NR7之后常常是有效的。IDnr4是指振幅（最高價與最低價的差）小于前面4天的孕線形態(tài)。NR7是指振幅小于前面6天的形態(tài)。
司空金融網(wǎng)()5 _7 D, \6 P$ A# l4 B4 L
司空金融網(wǎng)()) W$ i% I; R2 u6 [' S"Hook" days also tend to precede big moves in one direction. A hook day is any day that opens司空金融網(wǎng)()$ s+ t, P5 Q; N/ t
above/below the previous days' high/low then proceeds to reverse the
previous day's close but does so with a daily range less than the
previous day.司空金融網(wǎng)()! _3 N9 Z1 x6 Z! q/ d& U- _
司空金融網(wǎng)()" P6 V7 v9 I" c! C# D: B+ p3 o
“陷阱”形態(tài)也往往有這一現(xiàn)象。“陷阱”是指某天的開盤價高于/低于前面幾天的最高/最低點然后反昨日的方向收盤但振幅小于前昨日的形態(tài)。
司空金融網(wǎng)()$ `" U) F; K/ y7 R/ T6 M: z E1 T5 R
司空金融網(wǎng)()5 x9 n, {; U/ Q' W6 AMarch
copper in Figure 1 displays examples of all these patterns. Inside days
with the narrowest range in four days (IDnr4) occur at points c, e, g,
i, n, o and t. Days with ranges smaller than those of the previous six
days (NR7) occur at points a, d, f, g, h, j, m, n, p and s. Hook days
occur at points b, q and r. Notice the proximity of some of the next
day's openings to one of the extremes for that day and the general
tendency of the close of the same day to be at the opposite extreme.
司空金融網(wǎng)() o' J5 o- Z. u2 j( x- c3 s! C
司空金融網(wǎng)()4 Z6 H( {' y( ]- O- M6 @圖一中三月期銅的圖表展示了上面形態(tài)的幾個例子。IDnr4是圖中c,e,g,i,n,o,t.NR7是圖中a,d,f,g,h,j,m,n,p,s.陷阱形態(tài)是b,q和r。請注意其后那些開盤價和收盤價在日內(nèi)區(qū)間兩極的日子。
司空金融網(wǎng)()( P# Q. W) V- R0 W+ E6 x
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賺錢就是反復的做基本同樣的事情，但是一定也不boring，激情源于進步
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The earlier in the session the entry is taken the better chances for success.司空金融網(wǎng)()9 s/ O& e& u8 ?% |* i- T
司空金融網(wǎng)()& @6 F" {1 S1 v8 Q2 ~1 q6 D盤中進場信號發(fā)生的越早，成功的機會越大。司空金融網(wǎng)()+ M# l7 J3 R9 |+ k/ E5 M
司空金融網(wǎng)()3 o' V& c. N- o6 B
The ORBP provides an effective trade entry at times of a clear bias in
one direction. In particular, a running market provides a very clear
bias. On any inside day, the ORBP should be taken. Inside days act as
springboards for an immediate continuation in the direction of the run.
In Figure 2, the July soybean oil chart displays a running market
between numbers 1 and 2. Within that run, inside days at points a thru e
all resulted in successful opening range breakout trades with the open
on or near the low of the session in each case. Direction is not as
predictable at inside days f, g and h, but the opening range breakout
the司空金融網(wǎng)()( b; g* A( ?& G8 E. b
following day in each case provides an excellent entry.司空金融網(wǎng)()6 G8 k$ B+ t }- g" M7 {
司空金融網(wǎng)()4 O. A6 ` N/ ~# _2 D
ORBP在一個明確的方向上提供了有效的進場信號，特別是當乖離明顯的時候。在很多孕線形態(tài)出現(xiàn)時，ORBP應該被運用。孕線被當作大趨勢運行方向中一個
快速跳板。圖2中，7月豆油期貨顯示點1和點2的方向性趨勢運行。運行中，A到E的幾乎所有孕線形態(tài)導致了成功的開盤價格在日內(nèi)最低點的開盤區(qū)間突破。在
點F，G和H中方向是不定的，但轉天的ORB提供了漂亮的進場信號。
司空金融網(wǎng)()+ W S8 \4 O& e
司空金融網(wǎng)()) C7 j! ]' A+ D6 ~2 P) Q' f司空金融網(wǎng)(). z) `5 P# k E- i% n k9 @
A gap in the direction of the run is a strong indication of continuation
and an ORBP can be taken in the direction of the gap with an overnight
position held if a big day follows. October sugar in Figure 3 shows
three gaps (points a, b, c) within a very defined upward run. Note the
tendency for the open to act as the low of the day in each case. If a
breakout to the downside had occurred in these cases no trades would
have been taken. Logically, any of the patterns mentioned for use with
the ORB can be utilized in an ORBP when the bias is clear.司空金融網(wǎng)()0 k) q. P3 O: \- W* w1 T
司空金融網(wǎng)()8 E* f1 ? |" Z( {4 F6 x; i. q順
勢的跳空顯示了趨勢，而且如果接下來是大區(qū)間日，在跳空方向上利用ORBP建立的倉位可以持有過夜。圖三中，10月期糖顯示了三個明顯上升趨勢的跳空缺口
（點A，B，C）。注意這些以開盤價作為日內(nèi)低點的傾向。如果是反向的突破那么就不要交易了。從邏輯上講，很多ORB想臺都可以在乖離明顯的情況下得以利
用。
司空金融網(wǎng)()( a% N1 R0 P' C5 ^% Q' O0 G& |
司空金融網(wǎng)()+ @0 B8 [ |; f) {4 ?# C
司空金融網(wǎng)()8 R/ ?" J y: a0 P# ?9 \Upthrusts/springs,
reversal gaps or any sharp reversal should be followed up with an ORBP
in the direction of the reversal for at least two days afterward if it
confirms the intermediate trend. The November soybean chart (Figure 4)
displays upthrusts at points 1, 3 and 5 and springs at points 2, 4, and
6. Note the openings the days after the springs and the marked tendency
for them to occur near one extreme of the day. The upthrusts were not as
successful since a clear upward bias did exist. Again, ORB is most
effective after an inside day or a day whose range is less than any of
the previous six days (NR7).司空金融網(wǎng)()3 X w7 e: Y5 i8 I& Y
司空金融網(wǎng)()& m3 O. F3 c+ Y, g0 PUpthrusts/springs
形態(tài)，如果是趨勢中跡，反向跳空或者凌厲的逆轉之后，應該在兩天后有ORBP現(xiàn)象發(fā)生。圖4中，11月大豆期貨圖表顯示了點1.3.5的
Upthrusts形態(tài)，和點2.4.6的springs形態(tài)。注意springs形態(tài)后開盤在振幅的一端，而Upthrusts形態(tài)沒有明顯的乖離現(xiàn)象
發(fā)生?？磥鞳RB現(xiàn)象還是在IDnr4和NR7形態(tài)后最有效。
司空金融網(wǎng)()1 [7 [4 \6 i& d: L
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賺錢就是反復的做基本同樣的事情，但是一定也不boring，激情源于進步
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In
general, the earlier in the session the entry is taken the better the
chances for success. In fact, the ideal is an entry within the first 10
minutes of the session. In that case, an immediate continuation in the
direction of the breakout is likely. When you get a large price movement
in one direction within the first 15 minutes of the session (early
entry), the protective stop can be moved to break-even very quickly and
the trade is free.
司空金融網(wǎng)()) i7 k4 t% B& ]7 [. S6 V司空金融網(wǎng)()" p% |$ W1 N7 n( K4 J1 r- u$ G
一般來說，盤中進場信號越早成功的機會越大。事實上，盤中前10分鐘是理想的進場信號。在這種情況下，突破方向的持續(xù)是可能的。當你在開盤后15分鐘順勢進行交易，應該運用移動保護止損點來保護倉位快進快出。
司空金融網(wǎng)()' e" e) }8 S- ?$ p
司空金融網(wǎng)()! i' I' K9 |7 W) `" e! PThe
more time that passes between the open and trade entry, the lower the
probability of success. Adjust the size of your position downward as the
day goes on. The worst entry is just before the close when time is
running out and it is difficult to realize a profit. The objective of
these entry techniques is to establish a position for a two- to
three-day run, but this is successful only if a substantial profit is
realized by the end of the first session.
司空金融網(wǎng)()# D+ _8 m- i& Y4 O7 \- D/ Q司空金融網(wǎng)(): C$ b# K# }$ ?( g8 r4 I; j A
開盤價運行到進場進場信號所花的時間越長，成功的可能就越低。隨著時間要降低倉位。最糟糕的進場信號是那些發(fā)生在收盤前的，他們很難有時間去實現(xiàn)當日贏利了。這一進場信號的目標是2-3天，但只有在進場當天已經(jīng)獲得比較大的利潤的前提下才有可能實現(xiàn)。
司空金融網(wǎng)()8 |# o8 k# \# g3 K司空金融網(wǎng)(). Y. c/ M- I6 d( P: l
After the trade is entered the clock starts ticking. The ideal trade will show a profit almost
司空金融網(wǎng)()( {- F7 u7 {( A; U! Cinstantaneously.
The longer it takes to move away from the point of entry, the more
vulnerable the position. In general, stops should be moved to a
break-even within one hour after entry. A market that displays greater
tendency to trend should be given less time than an hour.
司空金融網(wǎng)()/ M I& S t% G `/ _, o* Q
司空金融網(wǎng)()7 L: M+ |" c- A3 _這種早早進場的方法，理想情況是進場后馬上就有利潤。價格移動所花費的時間越長，交易越容易失敗，一般進場后一個小時就已經(jīng)獲利了，有趨勢的市場應該在前一個小時表現(xiàn)出他的趨勢。
司空金融網(wǎng)()9 g3 }0 V' `' f0 `& ]; T* g司空金融網(wǎng)()8 `6 X3 l2 P' H
For example, the S&P usually takes no more than five to 10 minutes
before a clear getaway occurs. When judging the market action after
entry, compare it to examples of ideal, early entries with immediate
profit and persistent followthrough thereafter. Action that varies from
the ideal is suspect.司空金融網(wǎng)()) G# @, f0 w* ?- u: H, `9 R6 R/ l. i
司空金融網(wǎng)()' Q0 y- s9 F: d' J4 ^例如標普期指通常5-10分鐘就有一個明確的信號發(fā)生。進場信號后判斷市場，比較它和理想狀態(tài)在瞬時贏利和持續(xù)性上的差別。不同于理想情況的價格行為都是可疑的。
司空金融網(wǎng)()5 x6 Z9 p; b/ l0 X% O! g: N司空金融網(wǎng)()4 ?8 P3 f/ v3 R$ f/ A6 G% P. h
The ORB can be utilized as a general indicator of bias every day.
Whichever side of the stretch is traded first will indicate bias in that
direction for the next two to three hours of the session. This
information alone will keep you out of trouble, if nothing else.
司空金融網(wǎng)()" r. c' U0 h3 D司空金融網(wǎng)()0 n0 k) g) _9 [* D. b4 ~
ORB可以作為判斷每天方向的一個指標，向哪一方向出現(xiàn)擴張現(xiàn)象，在接下來的2-3小時就很可能持續(xù)這個方向運動。若無其他事情發(fā)生，這個信息可以讓你遠離麻煩了。司空金融網(wǎng)()' W1 @( q- d. W" b+ L" K+ T, ~
司空金融網(wǎng)(): V! W( _0 m0 v( b- lMultiple
contracts can be used when entering on an ORB or ORBP. This allows for
some profit taking as the move continues to guarantee at least some
profit in the case of a pullback to the break-even stop. A trailing stop
is also very effective.司空金融網(wǎng)()+ U3 d5 d- T7 \& x% y
司空金融網(wǎng)()- |' C$ g1 F2 d+ z, [5 t, @* ]
很多合約品種都可以使用ORB和ORBP判斷。利用跟蹤止贏策略來保持在回調(diào)中處于盈虧平衡的狀態(tài)。尾盤出場策略也是很有效的。司空金融網(wǎng)() Z& _, J* D8 c( I) t R
司空金融網(wǎng)()1 `. o" z2 o% C9 VIf
you miss the ORB and early entry occurred, any 3/8 to 1/2 retracement
of the established range can be used as an entry point with stops beyond
the 5/8 level. This technique can be utilized twice, but becomes
treacherous on the third retracement.司空金融網(wǎng)()# O, Y. I& K7 T2 s2 S" j3 K3 \
司空金融網(wǎng)()) k- v' m( X# p4 N! R5 U& F
如果你錯過了ORB和早盤進場信號，3/8-1/2的回調(diào)也可以進場，同時配合5/8處的止損保護點。此方法可以用兩次，第三次就比較危險了。司空金融網(wǎng)()4 r2 K. d8 ^$ j/ v# B3 E$ t" k
司空金融網(wǎng)()+ s T5 `, N/ X5 ]0 qIn
summary, the open is a primary market indicator. Without an
understanding of its importance and the market action around it, it is
difficult to come to correct conclusions about market direction. On
certain days the open acts as an ideal point of entry upon breakout. On
any day that such a breakout occurs within the first 10 minutes of
trade, the information is overwhelmingly in favor of a continuation of
that move. It a trade does not use these entry techniques systematically
they should at least be utilized as a general indicator of bias.司空金融網(wǎng)()' R5 z- N: ^& @3 J$ o) s( R: z
司空金融網(wǎng)()5 c! p4 H, l* ^' I8 E- F+ e綜
上，開盤價是市場一個重要指標。不理解它的重要性和其周圍時段的價格行為，很難對市場方向進行準確研判。在特定的日子里開盤價是很好的突破切入點。在任何
開盤后10分鐘產(chǎn)生突破現(xiàn)象的日子里，很多時候都會持續(xù)運行在這個方向上。這項技術不被作為進場點技術至少也可以用于判斷價格運行方向。司空金融網(wǎng)()2 \9 z' i$ _ G6 @, x# Z! d/ N
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賺錢就是反復的做基本同樣的事情，但是一定也不boring，激情源于進步
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Early
entry is defined as a large price movement in one direction within the
first five minutes after the open of the daily session. A study of early
entry is essentially a study of price action, and the type of price
action that takes place on early entry shows that participants are
urgent about entering the market. It is a distinct recognition of either
a profitable or dangerous situation.
司空金融網(wǎng)()+ H1 D" _2 A/ d: [" p5 e
司空金融網(wǎng)()) ?: v- b- _. j# C! m( P# f早間進場信號是指開盤后5分鐘第一個較大的價格移動。早間進場信號的研究主要是對價格行為及其類型的研究，發(fā)生早間進場信號說明有一些市場參與者迫切的進入市場，它是一種對贏利機會或是風險的獨特識別。司空金融網(wǎng)(). U9 o9 r8 W& [- V/ ~' F1 X8 t9 U k/ M
司空金融網(wǎng)()' s( @. i. M9 i* @9 z% Z5 }+ [
It should be noted that directional moves of this nature are relatively
rare and may occur only 10% of the time. Most days (70% to 80%), prices
exhibit rotation or choppy action and the first five to 10 minutes of
trading are sluggish and directionless without a clear movement away
from the opening range.
司空金融網(wǎng)()' d7 x, n7 W8 `, x5 g司空金融網(wǎng)()7 }' R$ Z9 o2 z c! y
應該指出，這種自然的定向移動現(xiàn)象是比較少見的，10天里大概也就有1天。大部分日子里（70%-80%是時候）價格在開盤后5-10分鐘里是盤旋震蕩的，它漫無方向的緩緩離開開盤范圍。司空金融網(wǎng)()+ n: e: w& h2 w7 R5 t L
司空金融網(wǎng)()4 i( k' \7 w3 a' k8 ?The
early entry price action is ideal when using an opening range breakout
for entry. An opening range breakout is a trade taken at a predetermined
amount above or below the opening range. The open should act as one
extreme of this range.司空金融網(wǎng)()6 E5 ?. s- t9 y* ]4 E5 P9 W4 `6 s
司空金融網(wǎng)()6 K/ G6 M' R: |5 t
當使用開盤區(qū)間突破的方法進場時早盤發(fā)生價格定向移動是理想的。開盤區(qū)間突破是通過開盤區(qū)間上下加減預定的數(shù)值范圍進行交易。開盤價應該作為當日振幅范圍的一端。司空金融網(wǎng)()8 [; j/ h- y d- n2 j. [
司空金融網(wǎng)()5 t" x% N/ a+ @5 b+ U6 oI
have observed two types of early entry. The characteristics of Type 1
(Figures 1 and 2) are as follows:The first five minute time period has a
larger range than normal. ("Normal" is roughly defined as the average
of the preceding 10 days' first five-minute ranges.)
司空金融網(wǎng)()" b+ x1 L5 o/ `* p司空金融網(wǎng)()4 R, z- o( `: d8 o w+ r
我觀察到了兩種類型的早間進場信號。第一種的特點如下：（圖一和圖二）開盤后第一個5分鐘有比正常情況更大的振幅。（“正常情況”是指大概以往10天開盤后前5分鐘振幅的平均值）
司空金融網(wǎng)()/ ]: a0 X* V5 A5 W; @+ F
司空金融網(wǎng)()- [( o9 g. A' i5 L6 n' M6 P; z
The opening of the day is on one extreme of the five-minute bar and the
close of the five-minute bar is on the opposite extreme. The second five
minutes shows an equal thrust in the direction of the first five-minute
period.司空金融網(wǎng)()/ J3 D# e7 |, a. C$ q
司空金融網(wǎng)()! c% Y* s; d1 Q6 U6 @司空金融網(wǎng)()9 h$ X+ S5 T6 N
開盤價位于當日第一個五分鐘線的一端而且這個五分鐘線收在另一端。第二個五分鐘顯示出順延第一個五分鐘方向上等量的推動力。司空金融網(wǎng)()& t& `& ^: u2 m* V" {( x
司空金融網(wǎng)()" A' m/ A3 V" L3 i- ^% UThe
Type 2 early. entry is extremely powerful and is characterized by an
excessively large range in the first five minutes, quite possibly bigger
than the previous 20 days ' first five-minute periods (Figures 3 and
4).司空金融網(wǎng)()7 }6 i9 h" A) r
司空金融網(wǎng)()& M+ J% m7 A. n* J: s$ m
第二類早間進場信號是極其強有力的且范圍極大的前5分鐘振幅，幾乎要大于前面20天的早間前5分鐘的振幅（圖3圖4）
司空金融網(wǎng)()! M# ]5 V1 l; n5 Y2 X) H
司空金融網(wǎng)()* `; L9 @$ \6 g+ B( C司空金融網(wǎng)()& k9 `2 s, O/ {. i
司空金融網(wǎng)()2 S; I3 N, a* H* J$ B6 ^
An equal thrust in the next time period is difficult to manage, but a
general drift in the direction of the first five minutes is likely with
an acceleration after further accumulation has occurred.司空金融網(wǎng)()9 K# [5 a- T6 u; B% O) g
司空金融網(wǎng)() [2 B& ^- V6 w( T
這樣在第二個五分鐘內(nèi)出現(xiàn)等量的推動力就顯得強人所難了，但很可能經(jīng)過一定盤整震蕩孕育出加速。
司空金融網(wǎng)(). w, B) _+ M* t" X
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賺錢就是反復的做基本同樣的事情，但是一定也不boring，激情源于進步
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One
possible trading scheme is to use an opening range breakout entry
technique each day, anticipating early entry. If ideal action does not
occur within the first five to 10 minutes, cancel orders. In a defined
trend or running market, use early entry to verify the existing trend
and then use any pullbacks of 3/8 to 1/2 of the existing daily range for
another entry.
司空金融網(wǎng)()5 K' i% N7 c/ E! eAn
open that occurs outside the previous day's high or low, in most cases,
sets up an intraday upthrust or spring. These are top and bottom
reversal patterns and tests show that on a move back into the previous
day's range by two ticks, the market has a 67% chance of continuing into
yesterday's range and closing beyond that point. This is excellent
advance information and, when it moves as far as the early entry extreme
price, it shifts the momentum for the entire day's trade and, quite
possibly, several days' trading if a reversal pattern forms on the daily
chart.
司空金融網(wǎng)()" y8 _' {+ c! V! R* v5 x司空金融網(wǎng)()( Z3 V/ d2 g2 Z- J
司空金融網(wǎng)()8 n2 ~5 P. Z @* B: b6 |0 _/ M
期待早間進場信號，每天使用開盤區(qū)間突破的技術是可行的交易策略。如果開盤后5-10分鐘內(nèi)沒有理想的價格行為發(fā)生，則取消交易計劃。在趨勢中的市場，使
用早間進場信號驗證趨勢，然后3/8到1/2的回調(diào)用于再次進場。，在大多數(shù)情況下，一個高開或低開，建立了盤中的擴張與延伸。有很多頂和底的形態(tài)被測試
表明，價格運動超過前日振幅兩個點（譯者：作者這里的兩個點不是指2%，是指TICK兩個委托跳動，今后的點也都是這個，請勿混淆），市場有67%的可能
在這一方向上維持前日的振幅到收盤。這可有了一個進一步的好消息，當它位移漸漸遠離早間進場信號的價格時，勢頭很可能演變?yōu)橐徽斓内厔?。若日線圖上反轉
形態(tài)確立，則很可能持續(xù)幾天的小行情。
司空金融網(wǎng)()3 G# J( k, f$ ^/ o1 ]! `0 G6 \
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賺錢就是反復的做基本同樣的事情，但是一定也不boring，激情源于進步
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- 最后登錄
- 2011-3-8
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- 2010-2-22
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Early entry failure
司空金融網(wǎng)(): p' ~8 }! q2 Z司空金融網(wǎng)()$ n7 h5 w/ _0 N0 p' b
早間進場信號的失敗
司空金融網(wǎng)()6 r- Z9 r0 [* t4 C7 b' K司空金融網(wǎng)()/ `) x7 f! L w j% ?7 J
Of course, there are times when, even with a defined thrust, the market
will not follow through and, in fact, will sometimes reverse completely.
This is defined as early entry failure (Figures 5 and 6) and is
associated with a momentum increase in the opposite direction of early
entry.司空金融網(wǎng)()( r. n- i! d: b
司空金融網(wǎng)()) y' l2 _( R; z) j+ N# R1 U當然。有些時候，即使貌似方向明確，市場也未必落實，事實上，有些時候甚至完全相反，這是失敗的早間進場信號，即日趨勢與早間進場信號方向相反的情況（圖5和圖6）。司空金融網(wǎng)()9 M. U* V4 V$ {3 d( s: p1 }
司空金融網(wǎng)()$ e! v9 f2 I) \/ J
Momentum can be assessed by the range of the time unit (i.e., a 5-, 15-,
30-minute bar chart). An increased range relative to the previous time
unit(s) shows an increase in momentum. Ideally, this should not happen
and when it does, it usually indicates an early entry failure is
occurring.
司空金融網(wǎng)()2 m4 w' m( @2 s" J1 X2 Q7 {4 ]
司空金融網(wǎng)()& S, _& \9 ^8 c! ?; n趨勢靠各個時間周期的線圖來識別。（5分15分30分鐘等等）相對于前面時間擴張的震幅顯示了動量的增加。理想情況下，這不該發(fā)生，通常表明早間進場信號失敗。
司空金融網(wǎng)()- I8 s" d8 g& v% W; x! e司空金融網(wǎng)()0 I% J2 k, i6 w+ M% X
司空金融網(wǎng)()( o! h o' u6 lAs
a rule, no countermove 5-minute bar should have a range larger than the
first 5-minute bar. All such larger bars should confirm early entry. In
fact, any 5-minute bar against early entry that is relatively large
compared to previous bars which confirmed early entry will imply a shift
in momentum and possibly early entry failure.司空金融網(wǎng)(); U$ ~8 a) x5 k; Q. j. Y! m
司空金融網(wǎng)()' F1 O& e( n8 u& W9 m% X5 _6 T# R9 A
所以，作為一條規(guī)則：不能出現(xiàn)比開盤后五分鐘K線振幅大的反方向K線。所有大振幅的K線必須確認早間進場信號。事實上，任何與早間進場信號振幅相反的大K線，都可能預示著轉變的勢頭，并可能促使早間進場信號失敗。司空金融網(wǎng)()3 h7 a0 |- X, c7 \
司空金融網(wǎng)()0 J3 n: _- ?0 S0 Y+ A4 T& \) @4 N
Neutral or confirming price action is crucial just after the early entry
indication. When entry is taken on a pullback, narrow range bars should
have been present on the retracement. A countermove with a momentum
increase (i.e., larger bars) is a warning that failure is occurring.司空金融網(wǎng)()) H6 Y3 `7 {$ q* v
司空金融網(wǎng)()1 J" O- n/ ]2 T0 h3 y% b* Q早間進場信號價格行為的確認極其重要。當采取回調(diào)進場法，回調(diào)應該都是小振幅的。大振幅的回調(diào)往往預示著失敗信號的發(fā)生。
司空金融網(wǎng)()9 S2 j; d' I6 T9 H
司空金融網(wǎng)()+ z' ^/ `2 f# y. {, W# q
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發(fā)表于 2010-6-14 19:44
